Monday, June 27, 2016

Brexit is the beginning of the breakup of EU

I don’t expect a global recession or another global financial crisis. I think the impact of Brexit is significant but not of the same size and magnitude of the one we had 2007 to 2009. 

However, I would say it is a major, significant financial shock, as the reaction of the markets on Friday suggested. It creates a whole bunch of economic, financial, political and also geopolitical uncertainties.

At some point in the future, the Scots might decide to go for another referendum and it may be the break-up of the United Kingdom. Then the Catalans in Spain might say ‘me too’ and that might lead to the break-up of Spain.

Some of the Nordic members of the European Union might say ‘without the UK the European Union is mostly the Euro-zone, so what’s in it for me?’