Thursday, May 1, 2014

If Russia decides to invade Ukraine...

 Suppose that Russia at this point decides to effectively either to destabilize, invade the eastern province of Ukraine, two things will happen. 

The stance of the West will have to become more Russia and Russia could have going as far as limiting the supply of gas not just to Ukraine but also to Western Europe. 

Secondly, the NATO, even if they’re not going to have a military intervention, they will have certainty provide some military support to the government in Kiev. And that means that this war could escalate for quite a while. And therefore from a financial market point of view, there may be contagion deriving two advanced economy’s financial market, especially in the euro-zone.