Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Ukraine - Russia standoff could continue for a while

The situation is such that even if he wanted to use force there first of all. 

Secondly, he’s not going to invade all of Ukraine. And you don’t know for how long a military conflict of this sort is going to continue, especially if the US and Europe were then to support militarily the government in Kiev. This war could continue and last for a while. So I’m saying this is not my baseline, but there is certainly downside risk that that will happen.

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Ukraine, Russia could tip Euro Zone to recession

There is the beginning now of a new cold war between the West and Russia, and this cold war could actually become a hot war if it’s possible Russia were to effectively destabilize and invade the eastern provinces of Ukraine, in which case things would escalate. You could have another episode of global risk aversion. 

If this were to become a real war, even a situation in which the supply of gas to Europe may be cut off from Russia. The European economy is barely now recovering from a recession. That could tip back the euro-zone into a recession.

Thursday, April 3, 2014

Roubini doesnt expect more QE surprises from Fed

Janet Yellen matters but under Bernanke, the Fed became a collegial democracy. She [Yellen] is one vote out of 12, an important one, but the composition of the FOMC matters for when they start and how fast they normalize.

Wednesday, April 2, 2014

Fed tapering surprises

They could start too soon and hike rates too much and that could lead to market consequences like we saw last year when there was a surprise with the Fed tapering.

Tuesday, April 1, 2014

Fed risks creating another huge bubble

It's going to take them up to four years to go from zero to a neutral 4 percent. The risk is that we are going to create another huge bubble in the economy.

Last time around it took them two years to normalize from 5 to 5.25, too little too late. They created the biggest housing, real estate credit and equity bubble.