Friday, February 28, 2014

Nouriel Roubini pictured with Fans


Nouriel Roubini with fans


Thursday, February 27, 2014

Canada slowdown not crash

I'm not predicting a crash [in Canada], but certainly a meaningful correction could occur and that would be something that could of course dampen the economy that is already growing moderately

Money could flow from Canada to US

If the Fed starts to raise rates some time next year, and the Bank of Canada waits for a few months, if not quarters, then money is going to flow out of Canada into the U.S. and that is going to weaken the currency.

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Slow growth could result from consumers

I would not expect a real crash in Canada. The worry is that even if it is a soft landing, if home prices fall, and consumers don’t walk away from their debt, that is going to slow down consumption growth.

Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Canada needs to weaken currency

I would say if your currency was 10 percent weaker, that would help manufacturing. It might not be conventional wisdom, but at the margin, I would say, keeping your currency weaker right now, it's important.

China in trouble

China faces additional risk stemming from a credit-fuelled investment boom, with excessive borrowing by local governments, state-owned enterprises, and real estate firms severely weakening the asset portfolios of banks and shadow banks. 

Most credit bubbles this large have ended up causing a hard economic landing, and China’s economy is unlikely to escape unscathed, particularly as reforms to re-balance growth from high savings and fixed investment to private consumption are likely to be implemented too slowly, given the powerful interests aligned against them.

Thursday, February 20, 2014

Emerging economies at risk of rising inflation

Fed has increased the pace of its QE tapering, structural reforms are not likely until after elections; and incumbent governments have been similarly wary of the growth-depressing effects of tightening fiscal, monetary, and credit policies.

Indeed, the failure of many emerging-market governments to tighten macroeconomic policy sufficiently has led to another round of currency depreciation, which risks feeding into higher inflation and jeopardizing these countries ability to finance twin fiscal and external deficits. Chinese growth is unlikely to accelerate and lift commodity prices;

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Dr Nouriel Roubini on the Fragile Five

Many emerging markets are in real trouble.

The list includes India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, and South Africa—dubbed the Fragile Five because all have twin fiscal and current account deficits, falling growth rates, above-target inflation, and political uncertainty from upcoming legislative or presidential elections this year. But five other significant countries—Argentina, Venezuela, Ukraine, Hungary, and Thailand—are also vulnerable. Political and electoral risk can be found in all of them, loose fiscal policy in many of them, and rising external imbalances and sovereign risk in some of them.

China weakness is a risk to advanced economies

The deep causes of last year’s turmoil in emerging markets have not disappeared. The risk of a hard landing in China poses a serious threat to emerging Asia, commodity exporters around the world, and even advanced economies.


Monday, February 17, 2014

Reasons for market weakness

The financial turmoil that hit emerging market economies last spring, following the US Federal Reserve’s taper tantrum over its quantitative easing (QE) policy, has returned with a vengeance. This time, the trigger was a confluence of several events: a currency crisis in Argentina, where the authorities stopped intervening in the forex markets to prevent the loss of foreign reserves; weaker economic data from China; and persistent political uncertainty and unrest in Turkey, Ukraine and Thailand.

5 Emerging markets in real trouble are

Many emerging markets are in real trouble. The list includes India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, and South Africa, dubbed the Fragile Five because all have twin fiscal and current account deficits, falling growth rates, above-target inflation, and political uncertainty from upcoming legislative or presidential elections this year. 

But five other significant countries—Argentina, Venezuela, Ukraine, Hungary, and Thailand—are also vulnerable. Political and electoral risk can be found in all of them, loose fiscal policy in many of them, and rising external imbalances and sovereign risk in some of them.

Monday, February 10, 2014

Nouriel Roubini youtube interview on next market crash



Watch Dr Doom speak on Bloomberg news. Interview from last year and now on youtube

Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Roubini: Skilled worker vs Blue Collar worker

Roubini says the Fed is caught in a position where it needs to do more to help the economy, but at the same time, it's beginning to create new bubbles. He referred to what he sees now as "frothiness," pointing in particular to housing, junk bonds, and, potentially, bitcoins. But in two or three years time, Roubini says we could have a problem that leads to another financial crisis.

"Capital will do well, and skilled labor will do well. Blue collar workers, not as much."

Monday, February 3, 2014

Emerging markets in a small storm

The financial turmoil that hit emerging-market economies last spring, following the US Federal Reserve’s “taper tantrum” over its quantitative-easing (QE) policy, has returned with a vengeance. This time, the trigger was a confluence of several events: a currency crisis in Argentina, where the authorities stopped intervening in the forex markets to prevent the loss of foreign reserves; weaker economic data from China; and persistent political uncertainty and unrest in Turkey, Ukraine, and Thailand.

This mini perfect storm in emerging markets was soon transmitted, via international investors’ risk aversion, to advanced economies’ stock markets. But the immediate trigger for these pressures should not be confused with their deeper causes: Many emerging markets are in real trouble.

The list includes India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, and South Africa – dubbed the “Fragile Five,” because all have twin fiscal and current-account deficits, falling growth rates, above-target inflation, and political uncertainty from upcoming legislative and/or presidential elections this year. But five other significant countries – Argentina, Venezuela, Ukraine, Hungary, and Thailand – are also vulnerable. Political and/or electoral risk can be found in all of them, loose fiscal policy in many of them, and rising external imbalances and sovereign risk in some of them.

Then, there are the over-hyped BRICS countries, now falling back to reality. Three of them (Brazil, Russia, and South Africa) will grow more slowly than the United States this year, with real (inflation-adjusted) GDP rising at less than 2.5%, while the economies of the other two (China and India) are slowing sharply. Indeed, Brazil, India, and South Africa are members of the Fragile Five, and demographic decline in China and Russia will undermine both countries’ potential growth.

The largest of the BRICS, China, faces additional risk stemming from a credit-fueled investment boom, with excessive borrowing by local governments, state-owned enterprises, and real-estate firms severely weakening the asset portfolios of banks and shadow banks. Most credit bubbles this large have ended up causing a hard economic landing, and China’s economy is unlikely to escape unscathed, particularly as reforms to rebalance growth from high savings and fixed investment to private consumption are likely to be implemented too slowly, given the powerful interests aligned against them.

Via - http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nouriel-roubini-explains-why-many-previously-fast-growing-economies-suddenly-find-themselves-facing-strong-headwinds