Monday, December 30, 2013

ISM data shows slowing

Chicago ISM & regional survey suggest a weakening of the the ISM & manufacturing at the national level. US growth in H2 slowing to a crawl.

Thursday, December 26, 2013

Islamic finance vs conventional finance systems

There is a need for a more resilient system, and that’s where there is potential for the Islamic system. 

It is less volatile and potentially more stable than conventional financial systems. Islamic countries in South East Asia have been quite successful, like Malaysia and Indonesia, and Turkey also is quite dynamic.

The advanced economies can learn from the Islamic system in this respect. 

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

The Prospect for Emerging markets is still positive

“The prospect for emerging economies is still positive, with 5 per cent growth averages compared with 1 [to] 2 per cent over [the] past few years in the rest of the world. There are demographic dividends with young workforces, and the rise of more affluent middle classes. All this adds up to a long-term trend that is putting these countries at the centre of growth in the global economies,”

- Via muslimvillage.

Monday, December 23, 2013

Roubini Warns Canada’s Housing Bubble about to Burst

‘Dr. Doom’ warns Canada’s housing bubble about to burst |
 It’s the doctor versus the governor in the ongoing debate over the direction of Canada’s housing market. On the pessimistic side there’s 

Nouriel Roubini, the man known as “Dr. Doom” for his pessimistic outlook on the global economy. He recently pinpointed Canada’s housing market as a bubble set to pop.

Canada is in the company of other housing markets that Roubini (known as one of the few to correctly predict the U.S. housing crash) says are showing
“signs of frothiness, if not outright bubbles,” including Switzerland, Sweden, Germany, Australia and New Zealand.



Read more at ca.finance.yahoo.com


Thursday, December 19, 2013

I am Optimistic about Dubai


“Dubai at the moment has good prospects. There has been a recovery in the real estate sector. The lifestyle here is less restrictive than in other countries in the region, and there is safety and security. In the longer term, Dubai can be an important financial centre and a key economy of the region. Sometimes you make mistakes, but if you manage growth more cautiously and manage diversification properly, I’m optimistic about Dubai,”

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Roubini : Gold Price tumbles to lowest since July

 Gold price tumbles to lowest since July - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Monday, December 16, 2013

Nouriel Roubini Warns ~ Bubbles In Several Housing Markets

Nouriel Roubini Warns ~ Bubbles In Several Housing Markets


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Saturday, December 14, 2013

Roubini : There is a lot Islamic Finance can teach us

“I’m all in favour of less risk, and some elements of Islamic finance involve profit-sharing and risk-spreading, which is good. There are many things in Islamic finance that can lead to more stability. There is a lot Islamic finance can teach us,” he says.

“I do not see Islamic finance competing with conventional finance, rather it is complementary to it. The main focus will be on the Islamic world, but others will also seek to get involved, like London.

“One of the challenges of the Islamic financial systems is the issue of insolvency. Creditors have a claim over the underlying assets, which is a good thing, but bankruptcy regimes in Islamic countries are not very strong,”

Thursday, December 12, 2013

Growth in Advanced Economies has been below Trend

“Until now, growth in advanced economies has been below trend, but there are some signs of acceleration. But you have to ask how strong is the recovery in advanced economies? Are there still structural problems there?”

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Back to Housing Bubbles by Nouriel Roubini


NEW YORK – It is widely agreed that a series of collapsing housing-market bubbles triggered the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, along with the severe recession that followed. While the United States is the best-known case, a combination of lax regulation and supervision of banks and low policy interest rates fueled similar bubbles in the United Kingdom, Spain, Ireland, Iceland, and Dubai.

Now, five years later, signs of frothiness, if not outright bubbles, are reappearing in housing markets in Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Finland, France, Germany, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and, back for an encore, the UK (well, London). In emerging markets, bubbles are appearing in Hong Kong, Singapore, China, and Israel, and in major urban centers in Turkey, India, Indonesia, and Brazil.

Signs that home prices are entering bubble territory in these economies include fast-rising home prices, high and rising price-to-income ratios, and high levels of mortgage debt as a share of household debt. In most advanced economies, bubbles are being inflated by very low short- and long-term interest rates. Given anemic GDP growth, high unemployment, and low inflation, the wall of liquidity generated by conventional and unconventional monetary easing is driving up asset prices, starting with home prices.


The situation is more varied in emerging-market economies. Some that have high per capita income – for example, Israel, Hong Kong, and Singapore – have low inflation and want to maintain low policy interest rates to prevent exchange-rate appreciation against major currencies. Others are characterized by high inflation (even above the central-bank target, as in Turkey, India, Indonesia, and Brazil). In China and India, savings are going into home purchases, because financial repression leaves households with few other assets that provide a good hedge against inflation. Rapid urbanization in many emerging markets has also driven up home prices, as demand outstrips supply.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nouriel-roubini-warns-that-policymmakers-are-powerless-to-rein-in-frothy-housing-markets-around-the-world#pU45gychTI8ulA0g.99


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Monday, December 9, 2013

Outlook of the world economy - Roubini Global Economics - National Oil Companies Congress 2013

 Nouriel Roubini, Founder and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics gives his keynote address on 'What is the outlook of the world economy and what are the implications for oil markets' at World National Oil Companies Congress 2013. His presentation is followed by an interview with Alexander Poegl, Senior Analyst and Consultant for JBC Energy

The annual World National Oil Companies Congress is where leaders of the world's NOCs meet each other and their partners to debate and decide the future of the oil and gas business.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Saturday, December 7, 2013

Roubini : U.S. Economy Growth Is Low, Inflation Is Low, Unemployment Is High

The economic activity is recovering very anemically. Growth is low, inflation is low, unemployment is high. That is the reason why we have zero policy rates, we have QE, credit easing.

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Thursday, December 5, 2013

The Housing Bubble(s) Not Bursting Any Time Soon

The global economy’s new housing bubbles may not be about to burst just yet, because the forces feeding them – especially easy money and the need to hedge against inflation – are still fully operative.

Moreover, many banking systems have bigger capital buffers than in the past, enabling them to absorb losses from a correction in home prices; and, in most countries, households’ equity in their homes is greater than it was in the US subprime mortgage bubble.

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Bond Yields Are Mispriced

Bond Yields Are Mispriced

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Monday, December 2, 2013

Housing Bubbles Worldwide : We are witnessing in many countries a slow-motion replay of the last housing-market train wreck

In countries where non-recourse loans allow borrowers to walk away from a mortgage when its value exceeds that of their home, the housing bust may lead to massive defaults and banking crises. In countries (for example, Sweden) where recourse loans allow seizure of household income to enforce payment of mortgage obligations, private consumption may plummet as debt payments (and eventually rising interest rates) crowd out discretionary spending. Either way, the result would be the same: recession and stagnation.

What we are witnessing in many countries looks like a slow-motion replay of the last housing-market train wreck. And, like last time, the bigger the bubbles become, the nastier the collision with reality will be.

Sunday, December 1, 2013

Roubini : QE tapering to have positive impact on S. Korea

Future tapering of the U.S. quantitative easing (QE) would influence the South Korean economy positively, a New York University economics professor said Monday.
"QE tapering will be positive to Korea," Nouriel Roubini said in Seoul at a meeting with South Korean Finance Minister Hyun Oh- seok, noting that the QE tapering would mean a recovery of the U.S. economy, on which South Korea heavily depends for trade, according to the Finance Ministry.
Interest rate hikes in the U.S. would lead to strong U.S. dollar, having a positive impact on exports, which account for around half of the South Korean economy, said Roubini. In addition, Roubini also said that South Korea held a positive position in terms of fiscal balance and sovereign debts, assessing that the April supplementary budget was appropriate and contributed to the country's recovery.