Saturday, November 30, 2013

Roubini : Indonesia could Grow faster than China and India

“Countries like India, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa and Ukraine [are also running deficits], but I would not put Indonesia in this group, even if Indonesia has some macro-financial fragility,” he said Saturday in his remarks delivered during the CEO Summit conference held as part of the APEC leaders meetings.“With the right economic reforms, the growth of Indonesia in the second half of this decade could even be higher than China and India,” Roubini predicted. - in The Jakarta Post


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Friday, November 29, 2013

U.S. Stock Market not in a Bubble Yet

In a Bloomberg interview, Roubini said central bank liquidity is not going to the economic recovery but into financial transactions “We are maybe not in bubble territory for the U.S. stock market, but if you look at housing around the world — Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, France, Germany, Israel, Brazil, Hong Kong, Singapore, China — we have frothiness if not outright bubbles in housing markets in many parts of the world,” he said. Also, the tech sector appears vulnerable with start-ups being overvalued based on forward revenue they haven’t even taken in yet. In addition, central bankers face a tough choice between killing off the recovery, or fueling growth at the risk of inflating the next financial crisis.
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Roubini ‏: In Bahrain Water more costly than Gasoline


Nouriel Roubini : In Bahrain water more costly than gasoline. Gasoline subsidized. Water costly as imported or produced with energy intensive desalinization- in twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Monday, November 25, 2013

Roubini : U.S. Economy Growth Is Low, Inflation Is Low, Unemployment Is High

The economic activity is recovering very anemically. Growth is low, inflation is low, unemployment is high. That is the reason why we have zero policy rates, we have QE, credit easing.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics 


 

Friday, November 22, 2013

Roubini Reasons for Caution

 Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics, expects recovery in the west to be 'at best weak'. He talks to Sarah Gordon, Europe business editor, a... Icerik giriniz


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Thursday, November 21, 2013

Nouriel Roubini dukes with EL-Erian

Watch the video below.

Rich Countries may be entering twilight zone of Ultralow Inflation

Nouriel Roubini : Or deflation @EconBizFin: The growing fear is that rich countries may be entering twilight zone of ultralow inflation - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Roubini : 10 basic and key questions that the Senators failed to ask Janet Yellen at her confirmation hearing

 10 basic and key questions Senators were too naive to ask Yellen:

1. You wrote about optimal control (OC) ie allow inflation above target. Do you support OC?
2. You wrote a few times that inflation may have to go above target for a while to reduce labor slack. Do you support this optimal control?
3. Do you agree with Governor Stein that macro-pru will not be sufficient to control bubbles? Would you raise rates sooner to prick bubbles?
 4. While you say no bubble today what is the risk that slow QE exit & policy rate normalization (4 yrs) will cause bubbles down the line?
5 . If the current approach to too-big-to-fail will not work would you down the line support breaking up big banks to deal with TBTF?
6. What will be Fed losses of paying interest on excess reserves of $3 trillion+ when you will normalize policy rates to 4%? 120bn a year?
7. Fed criteria for taper is a cumulative improvement in labor mkt outlook. Aren't we there now given fall in Un Rate & 180K jobs per month?
8. After ZIRP, QE, CE, FG growth is still weak & mon pol ineffective? Wouldn't a better policy mix be more fiscal stimulus & less monetary?
9. What is risk of fiscal dominance as Fed is effectively monetizing public debt? Should mon pol be used to nudge congress to cut deficit?
 10. What is risk of debt dominance, ie Fed unable to raise rates fast enough as high public/household debt requires low debt service ratio?  - via twitter


 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Sunday, November 17, 2013

Roubini : The ECB will eventually move to a Negative Deposit Rate

Nouriel Roubini: In October we at RGE also made an out of consensus call that the ECB will eventually move to a negative deposit rate and even to QE
And now senior ECB officials are openly talking about a negative deposit rate and about QE as options to fight low inflation/ strong euro - in Twitter



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Friday, November 15, 2013

Roubini on The Financial Armageddon

Nouriel Roubini : If you worry about Financial Armageddon, it is indeed metaphorically the time to stock your bunker with guns, ammunition, canned food and gold bars.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

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Thursday, November 14, 2013

Roubini ‏: China has a plan for Comprehensive Reforms

Nouriel Roubini : Both President Xi & Premier Li confirmed to us that China has a plan for "comprehensive reforms". Details to be unveiled at the Third Plenum - in twitter
 [Highway in China]


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Roubini says central bankers have a tough choice: Kill recovery or risk bubbles

In the aftermath of the financial crisis six years ago, unconventional tools like quantitative easing and zero-interest rate policies may have sparked an economic recovery but not one of turbocharged growth or low unemployment. That puts policy makers between a rock and a hard place, NYU economist Nouriel Roubini wrote in an opinion piece at Live Mint on Wednesday. He added:
“Policymakers will eventually face an ugly trade-off: kill the recovery to avoid risky bubbles, or go for growth at the risk of fueling the next financial crisis.”

One problem is that much of the excess liquidity created by these unconventional policies has gone into the the financial sector rather than the real economy, encouraging carry trades that make for frothy financial markets, Roubini said.

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Monday, November 11, 2013

QE did not help Investment

As below-trend GDP growth and high unemployment continue to afflict most advanced economies, their central banks have resorted to increasingly unconventional monetary policy. An alphabet soup of measures has been served up: ZIRP (zero-interest-rate policy); QE (quantitative easing, or purchases of government bonds to reduce long-term rates when short-term policy rates are zero); CE (credit easing, or purchases of private assets aimed at lowering the private sector’s cost of capital); and FG (forward guidance, or the commitment to maintain QE or ZIRP until, say, the unemployment rate reaches a certain target). Some have gone as far as proposing NIPR (negative-interest-rate policy).

And yet, through it all, growth rates have remained stubbornly low and unemployment rates unacceptably high, partly because the increase in money supply following QE has not led to credit creation to finance private consumption or investment. Instead, banks have hoarded the increase in the monetary base in the form of idle excess reserves. There is a credit crunch, as banks with insufficient capital do not want to lend to risky borrowers, while slow growth and high levels of household debt have also depressed credit demand.

Saturday, November 9, 2013

Roubini: Fiscal Drag Is Damaging U.S. Growth

Roubini: Fiscal Drag Is Damaging U.S. Growth Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- On today's "Chart Attack," NYU Stern School of Business Professor Nouriel Roubini and Bloomberg's Matt Miller look at how the government is weighing on economic growth. They speak on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." (Source: Bloomberg)
 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Free Markets don’t generate enough final demand

The result is that free markets don’t generate enough final demand. In the US, for example, slashing labor costs has sharply reduced the share of labor income in GDP. With credit exhausted, the effects on aggregate demand of decades of redistribution of income and wealth – from labor to capital, from wages to profits, from poor to rich, and from households to corporate firms – have become severe, owing to the lower marginal propensity of firms/capital owners/rich households to spend.

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Monday, November 4, 2013

The laissez-faire Anglo-Saxon Model has also now failed miserably

Some of the lessons about the need for prudential regulation of the financial system were lost in the Reagan-Thatcher era, when the appetite for massive deregulation was created in part by the flaws in Europe’s social-welfare model. Those flaws were reflected in yawning fiscal deficits, regulatory overkill, and a lack of economic dynamism that led to sclerotic growth then and the eurozone’s sovereign-debt crisis now.

But the laissez-faire Anglo-Saxon model has also now failed miserably. To stabilize market-oriented economies requires a return to the right balance between markets and provision of public goods. That means moving away from both the Anglo-Saxon model of unregulated markets and the continental European model of deficit-driven welfare states. Even an alternative “Asian” growth model – if there really is one – has not prevented a rise in inequality in China, India, and elsewhere.

Friday, November 1, 2013

To Avoid Revolution, Workers’ Rights needed to be protected

Even before the Great Depression, Europe’s enlightened “bourgeois” classes recognized that, to avoid revolution, workers’ rights needed to be protected, wage and labor conditions improved, and a welfare state created to redistribute wealth and finance public goods – education, health care, and a social safety net. The push towards a modern welfare state accelerated after the Great Depression, when the state took on the responsibility for macroeconomic stabilization – a role that required the maintenance of a large middle class by widening the provision of public goods through progressive taxation of incomes and wealth and fostering economic opportunity for all.
- in project-syndicate


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics