Monday, September 30, 2013

US Banks Are Even-Bigger-To-Fail

"Five years after Lehman's collapse US banks are even-bigger-to-fail given consolidation: J.P. Morgan taking over Bear Stearns, Bank of America taking Countrywide & Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo taking Wachovia." - in Twitter

Related stocks: Bank of America (BAC), J.P. Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC)


Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Sunday, September 29, 2013

Tapering: The Consensus Got It Wrong

"As The Economist put it the Fed is a Taper Tiger. But the consensus got wrong the "silence of the doves": they were fully data dependent." - in Twitter

Related ETFs: SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM)


Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Saturday, September 28, 2013

Italy`s Crisis

"if the situation worsens, which now seems hardly impossible, the consequences could be very damaging for Italy. "Our most probable scenario is elections in early 2014 but we do not exclude even sooner than that.

The markets are reasoning in a similar way. If there is no solution, the spread will rise to 300 (3.0 percentage points) in a few days and the calm period for the Italian stock market will come to an end. Bank stocks will be particularly hard hit and credit costs will continue rising. The sooner the elections, the worst the damage for bonds." - in brecorder 


Related ETFs: iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI)


Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Thursday, September 26, 2013

Emerging Market Rout: There`s More To Come

"I do not think we are finished with the rout in any of the emerging market asset classes, maybe we are more than midway but there is more to come. After all, what we know about the global environment is that the West is showing more signs of recovery. That points to tapering from the Fed.

We do not know exactly when that tapering is going to come. We do not know how much tapering is going to be. We do not know yet when the tapering will be followed by stop in the expansion of the Fed’s base money, more do we know when and by how much the Fed will tighten.


There are lots of stages in the shift in the US and therefore the global monetary and financial conditions environment that have yet to take place that would stretch out for a couple of years and it is that uncertainty and the threat of the coming reduction in the easing of monetary conditions that precipitated all this and on top of that now we have the Syrian situation becoming more escalated.


So, countries like India which are capital thirsty are still going to be in the forefront of this risk reduction episode across global markets." - in CNBC TV18 

Related ETFs: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM), WisdomTree India Earnings Fund ETF (EPI), iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF)


Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

U.S. Inequality Sharply Rising Again

"U.S. inequality sharply rising again above Gilded Age levels: Top 1% take biggest income slice on record" - in Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Monday, September 23, 2013

Dysfunctional U.S. National Politics

"Investors seem to underestimate how dysfunctional US national politics has become." - in Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

View the original article here

Saturday, September 21, 2013

Emerging Markets Decoupling Story Was Over-Hyped

"Emerging markets decoupling story was always over-hyped - Fed taper talk reaction shows EMs still linked to developed world." - in Roubini`s Official Twitter 

Related ETFs: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI)

Friday, September 20, 2013

U.S. Economy: Potential Growth Falling Towards 2 Percent?

"Stagnation of US productivity over the last year. A sign that potential growth is falling towards 2%?" - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Related ETFs: Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (XLF), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY)


Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Thursday, September 19, 2013

Sign of Labor Market Weakness

"Fall in unemployment rate is driven by fall in labor force participation rate, sign of labor market weakness with more discouraged workers." - in Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Bond Yields Are Mispriced

"Tapering of September Tapering. The Fed should not start tapering given mediocre GDP growth and labor market. Bond yields mispriced." - in Twitter

Related ETFs: Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (XLF), SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.


View the original article here

Monday, September 16, 2013

United States: 3 Sources Of Policy Uncertainty Will Come To A Head This Autumn

Today, the global economy is facing many known unknowns, most of which stem from policy uncertainty. "In the United States, three sources of policy uncertainty will come to a head this autumn. For starters, it remains unclear whether the Federal Reserve will begin to “taper” its open-ended quantitative easing (QE) in September or later, how fast it will reduce its purchases of long-term assets, and when and how fast it will start to raise interest rates from their current zero level. There is also the question of who will succeed Ben Bernanke as Fed Chairman. Finally, yet another partisan struggle over America’s debt ceiling could increase the risk of a government shutdown if the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and President Barack Obama and his Democratic allies cannot agree on a budget.

The first two sources of uncertainty have already affected markets. The rise in US long-term interest rates - from a low of 1.6 percent in May to recent peaks above 2.9 percent - has been driven by market fears that the Fed will taper QE too soon and too fast, and by the uncertainty surrounding Bernanke’s successor.


So far, investors have been complacent about the risks posed by the looming budget fight. They believe that – as in the past – the fiscal showdown will end with a midnight compromise that avoids both default and a government shutdown. But investors seem to underestimate how dysfunctional US national politics has become. With a majority of the Republican Party on a jihad against government spending, fiscal explosions this autumn cannot be ruled out." - in Project Syndicate


Related ETFs: Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (XLF), SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM)


Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.